Reviewing the Previews (Again)

By now, every fantasy football player is looking back at the season and wondering how everything went so wrong (or, in cases like the Fighting Amish, so right). One popular question: Did I get my advice from a bad source?
In this post, we look back at the predictions offered by four preseason fantasy preview magazines and consider whether they did any better than you would have fared picking your team this way.
QUARTERBACKS
Top 10 (in standard ESPN leagues): Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Josh Freeman, Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco.
How the previews fared: There was amazing fidelity among the magazines at this position; nine quarterbacks appeared in all four previews' top 10 lists. ESPN and Fantasy League Football had Flacco in the top 10 and got seven players right. USA Today and the Sporting News substituted Eli Manning for Flacco and got six players right.
What happened: All the magazines thought that Tony Romo would stay healthy and that Mike Martz would at least try to keep Jay Cutler upright all season. And at this point, the less said about Brett Favre, the better.
RUNNING BACKS
Top 10 (actually, 11, because two players tied for 10th): Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Peyton Hillis, Darren McFadden, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson, Michael Turner, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Rashard Mendenhall.
How the previews fared: It's as if they called each other before their printer deadline to exchange notes. The ESPN, Sporting News and Fantasy League Football previews got the same six players right (Johnson, Peterson, Jones-Drew, Rice, Turner and Mendenhall). USA Today missed on Mendenhall but had the other five players.
What happened: All four magazines showed too much faith in the bones and sinew of DeAngelo Williams and Frank Gore, and they all thought the St. Louis Rams would continue to ride on Steven Jackson's shoulders.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Top 10: Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Lloyd, Greg Jennings, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks, Andre Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Steve Johnson.
How the previews fared: Not well. USA Today got two players right (White and Andre Johnson). Fantasy League Football got those two plus DeSean Jackson. The other two previews got those three players plus Calvin Johnson.
What happened: Let's see ... Randy Moss was traded AND cut by different teams. Miles Austin and Larry Fitzgerald played on teams that tanked. Sidney Rice had migraines. And Reggie Wayne -- who, to be fair, missed the top 10 by two points -- lost a boatload of teammates to injury.
TIGHT ENDS
Top 10 (again, we go to 11 because of a tie): Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis, Marcedes Lewis, Kellen Winslow, Chris Cooley, Rob Gronkowski, Dustin Keller, Aaron Hernandez, Zach Miller, Brandon Pettigrew.
How the previews fared: More fidelity. The Sporting News and Fantasy League Football got the same four players right (Gates, Davis, Witten and Winslow). USA Today got those four and added Miller. ESPN got those four and added Cooley.
What happened: Everyone in the Western world expected Dallas Clark to be the top tight end again. All four previews also expected stellar performances from Brent Celek and Tony Gonzalez. (Remember: You don't have to be a top-performing tight end to make the Pro Bowl.)
KICKERS
Top 10: Sebastian Janikowski, David Akers, Matt Bryant, Josh Brown, Dan Carpenter, Adam Vinatieri, Neil Rackers, David Buehler, Nick Folk, Jay Feely.
How the previews fared: Each preview got two players right. No preview picked Vinatieri, which is understandable, since it's not like he's ever made a big kick or anything.
What happened: Predicting kickers is always a crapshoot, but all four previews swung and missed on Nate Kaeding, Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Longwell, Rob Bironas, Mason Crosby and Garrett Hartley.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Top 10: Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns.
How the previews fared: All four previews hit on the Jets, Packers, Ravens and Steelers. Fantasy League Football made it five right with the Patriots. The Sporting News made it six right with the Bears and Titans.
What happened: Too much confidence in teams that either fired the head coach in midseason (Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings) or let the coach's contract expire at the end of the season (Cincinnati Bengals).
We'll be back with some news about postseason fantasy football.