A NASCAR Playoff Primer

A NASCAR season that started in February has finally reached its post-season. Twelve lucky Sprint Cup drivers will compete over the next 10 weeks (and you thought hockey had a long playoff) for the right to lift the aforementioned cup, which technially isn't a cup, but we'll save that for another post.

The Chase for the Sprint Cup begins Sunday with a race at Chicagoland Motor Speedway. And here's what the makeup of that Chase can teach us.

First of all, we have to answer the question everyone has been asking since NASCAR unveiled yet another change in its scoring procedure: Do wins matter?

Well, in one sense, they don't. Two drivers -- Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- made it into this year's Chase without winning a single race. Five other drivers, including the winner of the Darlington race and the winners of both Daytona races, are on the outside looking in. Trevor Bayne (who became ineligible the moment he decided to chase a Nationwide Series title) is the fourth Daytona 500 winner in as many years to fail to make the postseason. Bright side: We may be approaching the day when talking heads stop referring to the Daytona 500 as the Super Bowl of motorsports.

In another sense, wins do matter. At least, they matter more than a stellar regular-season performance. In most sports, the top performer of the regular season would be rewarded in some way for it -- a bye week, home field advantage, etc. In NASCAR, Kyle Busch watched his points lead evaporate the moment Kevin Harvick crossed the finish line first last week in Richmond, equalling Busch's win total for the season (four). Both drivers will start the season with 2,012 points.

And if your Chase spot came via the wild card route, wins don't matter at all. You remember Stewart and Earnhardt, who got into the Chase without a single win? They start the Chase with 2,000 points -- the same number as Brad Keselowski, who won three times this season. Jeff Gordon's three wins are worth nine bonus points. Keselowski's are not.

Some wins are more equal than others.

And if Jimmie Johnson manages to win a sixth straight Sprint Cup, no one will notice that he won only one race during the regular season.

Got all that? Good. Now vote on the polls (fantasy NASCAR and fantasy football) on the right side of the page.

Winning's the Only Thing? Are You Sure?

We are halfway through NASCAR's "regular season," and Mike Helton and Company are probably hoping things change in the second half.
Back in January, NASCAR announced some rule changes, including changes to the way it selects drivers for its Chase for the Sprint Cup. Under the old system, the top 12 drivers in points after 26 races (in other words, after the fall race at Richmond International Raceway) were given spots in NASCAR's version of a playoff. It did not matter how many wins those drivers had -- or even if those drivers had won at all. Points were all that mattered. Now, NASCAR will give playoff spots to the top 10 drivers in points, and it will award two "wild card" spots. Those spots are for the drivers ranked 11th-20th in points who have the most wins in the first 26 races.
This "wild card" has gotten the nickname "the Jamie McMurray Rule," because McMurray won last year's Daytona 500 (along with the race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway) but missed the Chase because he didn't have enough total points. That nickname is unfair to McMurray, since his Chase miss was hardly a fluke. In 2009, Matt Kenseth won the Daytona 500 (and the following week's race in Fontana) but missed the Chase and finished 14th in points. In 2008, Ryan Newman won the Daytona 500 but missed the Chase and finished 17th in points.
Clearly, something had to be done. After all, the Daytona 500 is allegedly the Super Bowl of NASCAR, but the winner of that race is 0-for-the-last-3 in Chase qualification.
Lots of people saw it as a good thing for the sport to put more emphasis on wins. In this post on fines, Jay Busbee of Yahoo Sports cites the changes as one of the ways "this sport has taken more steps to address fan concerns than any other." And Joe Menzer of NASCAR.com tells us the wild card rule is "having its intended impact" by stoking fan interest and making drivers think about winning.
But take a look at how things stand now.
Of the current top 10 drivers in points, five of them (Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart, Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman) have no wins under their fan belts so far this season. And when you look at the next 10 drivers -- the ones eligible for a wild card -- only one driver has the requisite victory. That would be Jeff Gordon, who won the spring race in Phoenix. Yes, Brad Keselowski, our most recent winner, currently sits in 21st place, and it would not be shocking for him to be in the top 20 next week. But it also would not be shocking for the current top 10 drivers and Jeff Gordon to monopolize the rest of the wins this regular season. If that happens, and something unforeseen happens to take Keselowski out of the top 20, what happens to that last wild card?
Look further down the standings. Down in 29th place, you'll find Regan Smith, the proud owner of a victory at another iconic NASCAR track, Darlington Raceway. Unless he gets into the mother of all grooves, he's unlikely to make the top 20, and his win will go to waste, too.
Oh, and let's get back to the Daytona 500 for a moment. Do you remember who won that race this year? Trevor Bayne. And even if he didn't have his unfortunate illness this season, you wouldn't see him getting a wild card. That's the result of another rule change NASCAR made in January. It told drivers they could compete for only one series title. And Bayne now sits in 15th place -- in Nationwide points.
Make that 0-for-4.